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In this coures, you will :
- introduction to simple exponential smoothing, delving into the underlying concept and explaining how to assemble the forecast equation and optimise forecasts
Syllabus :
1. The Idea Behind Exponential Smoothing
- Self-correcting forecasts
- From error correction to smoothing
- Exponentially declining influence of observations
- Identify the appropriate baseline
2. The Forecasting Equation
- Dissect the error correction form
- Dissect the smoothing form
- Exponential smoothing tool
- Initialize the forecasts
3. Measuring Forecast Accuracy
- The absolute deviation approach
- The least squares approach
4. Optimizing Forecasts
- Solver
- Set up the smoothing formula for Solver
- Solution in R
