Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment

Description

In this course, you will learn:

• Recognize and recommend when and when the Classical Model (CM) should be used for Structured Expert Judgment.
• When dealing with complex decision-making situations where data is a problem, account for uncertainty assessments.
• Use the CM to examine expert data and find solutions to your issues.
• Participate in an optional IDEA Protocol module that employs an alternative approach to Structured Expert Judgment.
• Learn everything there is to know about the CM approach.
• Analyze expert data and use Structured Expert Judgment to solve real-world problems.
• Participate in optional modules on eliciting probability and eliciting reliance.
   

Syllabus:

1.  Why and when to use SEJ?
2. Statistical accuracy (calibration) and information score
3.  Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker
4. Data analysis using Excalibur
5. Applications of CM
6. WEEK 6: Practical matters (biases, experts, elicitation)