An Intuitive Introduction to Probability

Description

This course will give you a basic, intuitive, and hands-on introduction to Probability Theory. You will learn how to apply Probability Theory in various scenarios and will receive a "toolbox" of methods for dealing with uncertainty in your daily life. 

The following topics are covered: "Probability," "Conditional Probability," "Applications," "Random Variables," and "Normal Distribution."

Syllabus :

1. Probability

• Definition and Rules
• A First Look at Statistical Independence
• Subjective Probabilities
• Empirical Probabilities: Benford's Law

 

2. Conditional Probability

• Definition
• Multiplication Rules
• Probability Tables
• Bayes Rule

 

3. Application

• The Birthday Problem
• The Monty Hall Problem
• Structuring Risks
• The Prosecutor's Fallacy
• The Sad Story of Sally Clark

 

4. Discrete Random Variables

• Expected Value
• Measures of Dispersion
• Application: Financial Model
• Binomial Distribution
• Application: Airline Overbooking

 

5. Normal Distribution

• Continuous Random Variables
• Calculating Normal Probabilities
• Calculations with the Normal Distribution
• Application of the Normal Distribution

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